Post by nephillymike on Jun 23, 2023 21:35:11 GMT -5
Congrats to him. His hard work has resulted in turning around a horrendous playoff outing in 2021 to a spectacular 2022 season. He is what we want our athletes to be. Humble, hard working, talented and clean image.
Every year for the last few, I do an adjusted QB rating system that I believe really captures. I call it the NEPM QB Rating. Basically, it takes the widely used Passer Rating and I adjust it to include rushing yards, rushing attempts, rushing TD's fumbles lost, sacked yards lost. The passer rating has four main components; completion %, yards per attempt, TD %, Int %. By adding the rushing and sacked yards, fumbles and rush TDs, I too have four components:
Completion %
Total Yards Per Rush Attempt + Pass Attempt. Sacked yards lost are deducted in total yards
Total TD% (Rush TD and Pass TD)
Total Turnover % (Int and Fumbles lost)
Here are the top 10 in the 2022 NEPM QB Rating. The number in ( ) represents their ranking in 2021:
1. Mahomes (11)
2. Tagovailoa (15)
3. Garoppolo (12)
4. Hurts (16)
5. Burrow (2)
6. Goff (23)
7. Smith (not eligible)
8. Allen (14)
9. Dalton (not eligible)
10. D. Jones (28)
I also do a four system rating which ranks the QB's in the NEPM Rating, the Passer Rating, the QBR and the PFF rating. I then divide their rankings total of all four by four to get their average ranks in these four metrics. Here are the top ten using that criteria for 2022. The number in ( ) represents where they ranked in 2021:
1. Mahomes (10)
2. Tagovailoa (20)
3. Hurts (19)
T4. Burrow (2)
T4. Allen (12)
6. Smith (not eligible)
7. Jackson (22)
8. Goff (23)
9. Garoppolo (13)
10. D. Jones (25)
Hurts rankings in the four rating systems: NEPM 4th, Passer Rating 4th, QBR 5th, PFF 4th. A spectacular year! In 2021, his rankings were NEPM 16th, Passer Rating 23rd, QBR 20th, PFF 14th. Big time improvement!
In doing this analysis, I stumbled across something very startling. Going in, I would have thought that the movement in the rankings of QB's would be fairly static. The top QB's are the top QB's ! However, that is DEFINITELY NOT THE CASE.
In the NEPM rating, only one top 10 QB in 2021 returned to top 10 in 2022; J. Burrow, 2nd in 2021 and 5th in 2022.
In the four system rating, only two 2021 top 10's returned in 2022: Burrow at 2nd in 2021 and T4th in 2022 and Mahomes 10th in 2021 and 1st in 2022.
There was one QB in the 2021 NEPM top 10 that wasn't eligible in 2022; J. Winston (10th in 2021, not eligible in 2022), while there were two QB's in the top 10 in 2022 that were ineligible n 2021; Smith at #7 and Dalton at #9 .
Most important, of the nine top 10 QB's from 2021 that were eligible for the 2022 NEPM rating, they all dropped in the rankings and dropped by an AVERAGE of 11.5 spots! In the four system rankings, the nine eligible QB's dropped by an average of 9.5 spots. Conversely, the 8 QB's in the 2022 NEPM rankings who were eligible in 2021 moved up an average of 10.2 spots. In the four system rankings, there were 9 QB's in the top 10 in 2022 that were eligible in 2021. They moved up an average of 10.7 spots!
If the same thing happens this year, Hurts NEPM ranking would drop from 4th to 15th. His four system ranking would drop from 3rd to 14th. That's just the average of the movements that happened last year. Furthermore, non top 10 QB's in 2022 like:
11.Lawrence
12.Prescott
13. Herbert
14. Cousins
15. Jackson
18. Rodgers
19. Murray
20. Carr
Could all ascend into the top 10 to fill the void of the falling top 10 of this year. Big movements like this are more possible than not. I, and I would think most others, thought top 10 QB status and the teams' fortunes that go along with this would be more static than they are. We need to keep our fingers crossed that Hurts bucks this trend.
PS, If anyone wants the hard data, PM me with your e-mail and I'll send it along.
Every year for the last few, I do an adjusted QB rating system that I believe really captures. I call it the NEPM QB Rating. Basically, it takes the widely used Passer Rating and I adjust it to include rushing yards, rushing attempts, rushing TD's fumbles lost, sacked yards lost. The passer rating has four main components; completion %, yards per attempt, TD %, Int %. By adding the rushing and sacked yards, fumbles and rush TDs, I too have four components:
Completion %
Total Yards Per Rush Attempt + Pass Attempt. Sacked yards lost are deducted in total yards
Total TD% (Rush TD and Pass TD)
Total Turnover % (Int and Fumbles lost)
Here are the top 10 in the 2022 NEPM QB Rating. The number in ( ) represents their ranking in 2021:
1. Mahomes (11)
2. Tagovailoa (15)
3. Garoppolo (12)
4. Hurts (16)
5. Burrow (2)
6. Goff (23)
7. Smith (not eligible)
8. Allen (14)
9. Dalton (not eligible)
10. D. Jones (28)
I also do a four system rating which ranks the QB's in the NEPM Rating, the Passer Rating, the QBR and the PFF rating. I then divide their rankings total of all four by four to get their average ranks in these four metrics. Here are the top ten using that criteria for 2022. The number in ( ) represents where they ranked in 2021:
1. Mahomes (10)
2. Tagovailoa (20)
3. Hurts (19)
T4. Burrow (2)
T4. Allen (12)
6. Smith (not eligible)
7. Jackson (22)
8. Goff (23)
9. Garoppolo (13)
10. D. Jones (25)
Hurts rankings in the four rating systems: NEPM 4th, Passer Rating 4th, QBR 5th, PFF 4th. A spectacular year! In 2021, his rankings were NEPM 16th, Passer Rating 23rd, QBR 20th, PFF 14th. Big time improvement!
In doing this analysis, I stumbled across something very startling. Going in, I would have thought that the movement in the rankings of QB's would be fairly static. The top QB's are the top QB's ! However, that is DEFINITELY NOT THE CASE.
In the NEPM rating, only one top 10 QB in 2021 returned to top 10 in 2022; J. Burrow, 2nd in 2021 and 5th in 2022.
In the four system rating, only two 2021 top 10's returned in 2022: Burrow at 2nd in 2021 and T4th in 2022 and Mahomes 10th in 2021 and 1st in 2022.
There was one QB in the 2021 NEPM top 10 that wasn't eligible in 2022; J. Winston (10th in 2021, not eligible in 2022), while there were two QB's in the top 10 in 2022 that were ineligible n 2021; Smith at #7 and Dalton at #9 .
Most important, of the nine top 10 QB's from 2021 that were eligible for the 2022 NEPM rating, they all dropped in the rankings and dropped by an AVERAGE of 11.5 spots! In the four system rankings, the nine eligible QB's dropped by an average of 9.5 spots. Conversely, the 8 QB's in the 2022 NEPM rankings who were eligible in 2021 moved up an average of 10.2 spots. In the four system rankings, there were 9 QB's in the top 10 in 2022 that were eligible in 2021. They moved up an average of 10.7 spots!
If the same thing happens this year, Hurts NEPM ranking would drop from 4th to 15th. His four system ranking would drop from 3rd to 14th. That's just the average of the movements that happened last year. Furthermore, non top 10 QB's in 2022 like:
11.Lawrence
12.Prescott
13. Herbert
14. Cousins
15. Jackson
18. Rodgers
19. Murray
20. Carr
Could all ascend into the top 10 to fill the void of the falling top 10 of this year. Big movements like this are more possible than not. I, and I would think most others, thought top 10 QB status and the teams' fortunes that go along with this would be more static than they are. We need to keep our fingers crossed that Hurts bucks this trend.
PS, If anyone wants the hard data, PM me with your e-mail and I'll send it along.