I finally had it in me to read all of the infighting after this brutal loss. I see that someone referenced Kapadia's advanced stats.
I didn't listen to any sports talk until Wednesday to take a break. Didn't watch the post game show yet or rewatch the game.
After having time to analyze things, I think I have a little more perspective than if I'd posted earlier in the week.
Let's play a little game. I'll post real stats about this Super Bowl and tell me at which point you would think the Eagles were in trouble of losing the game:
1. The Eagles offense scored 35 points
2. The Eagles outgained KC 417 - 340
3. Eagles win the Time of Possession 35:47 - 24:13
4. Eagles lead at halftime 24-14
5. Hurts out passes Mahomes 302- 182
6. Hurts passer rating is 103.4
7. Hurts runs for 70 yards
8. Hurts has three rushing TD's
9. D. Smith has 100 rec yds
10. AJ Brown has 98 yards and a TD
11. Mahomes is very badly limping off the field at the end of the first half and is in pain
At this point, everyone would bet the house on an Eagles win
12. KC RB's rush it 20 times for 114 yards, a 5.7 ypc average
13. The Eagles lose the turnover battle 0-1
14. KC wins the yards per play battle 6.4 to 5.8
15. KC wins the points off turnover battle 7 -0
16. PHI RB's rush 17 times for 45 yards for a 2.6 ypc average
17. KC's Receivers were so wide open all day that only 7.5% of passes were in tight windows
18. Mahomes 77.8% completion rate would be second best in the last 20 SB's
19. KC's offense would achieve the 6th best success rate of any team in any game this season and playoffs.
20. KC got a 1st down or TD on their downs in 93.4% of the series in the 2nd half, with only the on purpose down at the 1 yard line preventing a 100% rate on this stat.
21. KC 2nd half drives would result in TD, TD, TD, FG
22. A defensive holding call with under 2 minutes left would cause 0 more points, but would cost a timeout and 1:30 in clock
23. In 400 games since 2000, the defensive performance ranked 391st in Expected Points added per drive and 395th in success rate for the game (defined as 50% of needed yards on 1st and 2nd down, 100% needed yards 3rd or 4th down). We've seen some bad defenses at times during the 20+ years, but this was perennially bad.
I don't know where you guys are, but my concern for a loss starts at #19. Up to that point all above make up for each other.
I think this was a case where the defensive results were what has happened in the past with this defense: lack of pass rush = historical completion rates with ease by good or better QB's. We were up against the best.
Why didn't we have a pass rush? First, the KC OL is excellent at pass protection. Second, we had no footing on the turf. Slippery footing always gives the offense advantage as they know where they are going. 3rd we didn't rotate DL in like we had done all year long. They were dog tired. Big mistake. See the snaps for DL:
46 Reddick
45 Cox
45 Sweat
42 Hargrave
18 Graham
12 Williams
11 Suh
10 Davis
10 Joseph
2 Quinn
BG, Williams, Suh and Joseph should have played more. Cox 45 snaps. Really? What tape were they watching?
As far as the punt, I agree with the decision (at the time, it wasn't reasonable to expect the historical ineptitude of the defense, so I didn't have the hindsight) The 4th down chart tells you to punt here. It doesn't tell you to go for it until you are at midfield with 4th and 3, which is a 47% chance. So we had a 47% of conversion, and if successful had an Expected points form the drive of around 3-4 points. We have a 53% of not getting it and a resulting expected points given up of 5-6 points. Punt the ball. Now in hindsight because our defense sucked so bad, you can't punt it. But I really thought the defense could come up with one stop. Credit Reid and KC, blame Gannon and our D. Technically, Hurts 7 points fumble was a margin of defeat, but when you take his performance as a whole versus our D's performance as a whole, one was historically good the other's historically bad. Even with that, we were up 10. That bad punt hurt badly. But would KC not have scored like they did all game? I think they still drive close enough for the winning score the way it was going. Does anyone bet against them dong that given the events of the day?
This loss sucks. Tomorrow never knows.
Will we ever get back with Hurts? Will we ever win a SB with him? The even odds tell you once every 16 years you get there and once very 32 you win. Even if we are a better organization and have double the chance, you are still talking 8 years until we go back, 16 more until we win.
There are only three QB's who have lost their first SB and have gone on to win one later on:
Len Dawson, lost SB 1 to GB and won one 3 years later
Bob Griese lost his first and won one the next year
John Elway lost his first three and won his first 11 years after that first loss.
Even greats like Rodgers and Brees only got to one.
Pack a lunch, this could be a while.......................................................