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Post by nephillymike on Aug 21, 2021 22:57:10 GMT -5
I want to survey opinions for my real life situation.
As you guys remember, I was following COVID closely through the winter and early spring.
I’ll try to list as many non biased facts as I can to hopefully get feedback for a well informed decision:
- a little over 50% of the country is fully vaccinated, which is thought to need 70-75% to reach herd immunity.
- they are expecting FDA approval of the vaccines by mid September, but are not sure how much that will convince non vaccinated to get the vaccine.
- they are not expecting the approvals for kids under 13 until December sometime. That and the following vaccination of the kids will get us to the herd immunity levels needed.
- with the US vax rate and the world vax rate low, the likelihood of more variants is high, so we could be seeing more strains coming down the pike.
- this is different than the original strain in that vax folks can carry it and spread it just like unvax can.
- as far as the death rate of this strain, it is about 65% of the previous version. The last version was about 1.5% of reported new cases where this one is about 1%. This is of the reported cases, so the actual death rate of both versions is lower due to unreported cases
- the vax people are still very safe from dying as over 95% of the new COVID deaths are non Vax folks.
- our new cases are at the same level as they were in the 3rd week of January.
- we have not reached peak new cases for this version yet. That is expected sometime from mid September - mid October
- estimates as high as 33%-50% of unvaxed people are estimated to get this version of the virus
Now the ethical/business question:
- our business is about 45 employees of which 35 are movers and furniture deliverymen. These are in homes every day of the week including Saturdays. Most are young an are unvaxed. 7 of 10 office people are vaxed and 2 of the 3 unvaxed people have gotten the virus, including the owner. A few of the 35 have had the virus with symptoms in the past,probably some had it assymptomatic.
- if nothing is said, at least initially, it is at any will get vaccinated.
- with no mask mandate In place and most of the plexiglass dividers taken down, it is very likely that some vaxed people will infect unvaxed people.
Question:
If you owned the company, what would you do?
Mandate the vax?
Mandate masks and plexiglass etc?
Not be concerned about the unvaxed, figuring in the interest of personal freedom, they had the choice to get the vax and the employees should have the freedom to work unencumbered by masks, dividers etc.
While I don’t own the business, I have the ability to try to convince the owner on the best course of action.
What would you do?
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Post by robbieratchet on Aug 23, 2021 12:53:36 GMT -5
I don't know how old you are, but I assume you've spent several decades on the planet and have gotten sick many times. What did you do during every single flu season before this? Help stop the insanity. That's your best answer.
The longer answer is we're about to import 30,000 cave dwellers here, while our border is completely open and people from every 3rd World country on the planet are being transported throughout the country. Nancy Pelosi is partying with billionaires without a mask while her servants wear them. Obama's birthday bash. Wal-mart and Amazon have thrived, while countless small businesses have shut down. Etc. So I don't want to hear a damn thing about this, and frankly, if people really start losing their jobs because they aren't getting a vaccine, I hope they start rioting too. We're in the process of witnessing the collapse of our civilization.
Oh, P.S. I almost forgot: tell your employees everything is voluntary, and any harassment over anyone's choices will lead to termination.
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Post by nephillymike on Aug 23, 2021 16:04:49 GMT -5
Well, the flu. Just like the flu.
There it is.
I had to debunk a myth of a coworker the other day that just as many people die in a car accident every year. (Approx 37K a yr)
So, do nothing. That’s one course of action. Honestly,if I’m a betting man, that’s my guess where we’re going with the company.
I agree about the hypocrisy and the border etc. IMO, just because there is hypocrisy, doesn’t mean we don’t do something.
Watch Florida closely these next few weeks. That may give us a helpful look ahead.
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md717
Pro Bowler
Posts: 276
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Post by md717 on Aug 29, 2021 22:24:32 GMT -5
Hey Mike - I'll take a shot. (See what I did there?!)
So because I know and like you, I believe that you believe the bullet points you listed are unbiased facts. But boy, those sure are hard to come by these days.
So the 50% vaxxed number. That's of the overall population, some significant portion of which (under 12) is inelligible. We don't need to get to 70% vaxxed to reach "herd immunity" - if that's ever even possible. The powers that be have failed from the beginning to take into account the broader and longer-lasting immunity achieved by those who have had the virus and recovered. If you look at it by vulnerable groups, very high percentages of the elderly (for example) are vaxxed.
FDA approval isn't going to convince the unvaxxed. They have deep suspicion of the government (and given the terrible messaging and politicization, I have a hard time blaming them.) To them, the FDA approval is just the powerful pulling the strings they want pulled. This isn't an irrational conclusion, seeing as the same powers that be are already talking about "boosters" well before the FDA has had anything to say about that. It's as if it's a foregone conclusion, just waiting for the FDA's rubber stamp.
Cases are spiking in my community, but deaths are way down. In Lancaster County, about 15 people have died in the past two months. This is a county of 550,000 people.
Generally speaking, it seems to me to be very difficult to nail anything down in this environment.
I know a little bit about aerosol particles and their travel in ambient air. I used to rep for a company that made anesthesia and respiratory filters. This was during the early days of AIDS. Viruses are tiny. Fortunately they don't travel alone, they travel on aerosol particulate which is many many times bigger than an individual virus. But those particles are *still* really tiny.
Masks - at least the cheap surgical kind and the plain cloth kind - are completely ineffective. They might be a tiny bit effective in restricting a sneeze or cough from travelling as far as it might otherwise. But other than that - it's like replacing the screens in your windows with chicken wire to keep out the gnats. The holes are too big and the particles too small.
So to answer your ultimate question - I'd ease up on yourself a bit. Ultimately it's not your call. I think this thing is going to go the way it's going to go and there's not much we can do about it. (Short of developing and distributing a vaccine, that is.) Compare infection rates in California and rates in Florida. Or death rates, if you prefer - when Florida's population is way older and way more at risk.
For me personally? I'm done. I'm vaxxed, and even though there is some reason to believe that may not protect me much longer, I'm going to do what I have done since month #1 of this mess - live as I have always lived to the best of my ability.
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Post by One on Sept 3, 2021 18:37:40 GMT -5
I'll start by saying that I got the vaccine last year. Saying that, I think both robbie and MD have nailed a lot of the relevant points but I'll add my two cents.
First, that 50% vaccination number leaves us to assume that equates to 50% immunity rate, but the reporting always leaves out those who have had COVID and have natural immunity which is far better. The estimates are that we've reached the 70% immunity, but they have no idea how many people have had asymptomatic COVID with immunity so we may even have exceeded that.
On the negative column, the vaccines are not nearly as effective as they told us they were. I had the Pfizer which was supposed to be 95% effective. Now they're telling us it's only 35% effective but it makes us less likely to die from the virus. Which raises two enormously relevant points which have existed from the start. First, the death count includes people who have died with COVID when we are led to believe it's restricted to those who have died from COVID. Consequently, we have no idea how many people have died from the virus. Many will argue that the virus was the straw that broke the camel's back of those who had comorbidities, but the truth is that's a guess. Second, rarely is it mentioned that somewhere between 95% and 99.9% of those who are infected recover, depending on risk group and health condition before contracting the virus.
Children under the age of 20 have almost no statistical risk of dying from the virus, and very little risk of either contracting it or carrying it. As an overview of this entire conversation we should note that there is growing focus on children not only being vaccinated but wearing useless masks. Add in that the vaccine that is currently available is not approved by the FDA making it truly experimental. Note also that the vaccine that is (or will be) approved will not be made available until the existing unapproved is all used up.
Like other viruses, this one will not be eradicated. There will be new COVID strains just as there are new flu strains. We have to live with it, and some will die from it ... just like the flu, whether it's worse or not.
How we react to this, whether as an individual or as a business owner, is a matter of choice. We all have to make the best decision we can with the information we have available to us. The real crime of this virus is that much of the information is being censured or ignored and those who have views other than the "official" perspective are canceled. As a result, a large percentage of our population does not have all of the available information and makes decisions based on "approved" information.
If you're vaccinated you apparently made the same decision that I made. Judging by your post, probably for different reasons. Social pressures make it far more difficult to make the call for a group of people, as I take it you are facing. It's easier for an individual or a family than it is for an employer. I sympathize with your situation. I believe education is the key for all of us, and that requires complete and accurate information. But even if you believe as robbie does, you have the burden of making policy that could affect the lives and livelihood of 45 families.
Best of luck, friend, I don't envy that.
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Post by One on Sept 4, 2021 7:29:41 GMT -5
I forgot to answer your questions.
I would not mandate anything. I'd get everyone together for a meeting and exchange views and information. I'd be prepared with verifiable facts. I'd be sure to provide all sides of the issue and allow everyone to calmly express their views and get a pulse on how the people I'm responsible for feel about the issues.
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Post by nephillymike on Sept 5, 2021 12:57:06 GMT -5
Hey MD and One,
Thanks for chiming in with thoughtful replies. Sorry I'm late to the party.
As far as the work thing goes, nothing has changed. The owner did not implement anything and I didn't bring it up since the first conversation as some vacations for each of us left me less opportunity to. Not sure how many employees have gotten it in the last few weeks. There's been a few mysterious absences by some guys who normally don't miss time, but I haven't really investigated them.
I find it a really interesting dynamic. And not in a good way. That we can be so far into this thing and still have entrenched camps on both sides. I don't know if this pertains to you guys or not. I'm curious with your views why you would get the vaccine. Maybe you could explain your thought process. For me it was a combination of two things; 1. belief in the dangerous nature of the thing. But with my son being one of the actuaries on the Aetna team that needs to project where this is going and the ultimate cost to the company, I have access to a lot more data, actuarial models and high level debate opportunities than most. Most don't have the opportunity to argue and hash things out. 2. my wife has a condition that makes her immune compromised. 3. My job. I am in contact with 40 or so movers and warehouse men, most of whom are unvaccinated who are in daily contact with customers and freight drivers, many of whom are unvaccinated. Most people these days have the shelter of working from their homes or not working at all and don't have the daily exposure to the real world.
The owner had a mild case. His son had a severe case (non hospital version). His immune compromised wife did not get it yet and has not gotten the vaccine. She only works part time and doesn't have the contact with the movers and warehouse workers that I do, but she is still at risk, big time. To the owner, the vaccine is a sign of weakness. Getting it would be admitting that his "it is as bad as the flu" and "it is just like car accidents exposure" were wrong. Admitting that it is something that needs to be discussed would be giving it the credence it doesn't deserve. He lies and tells our customers our employees are vaccinated. Yep. He's a church going man. big in the local catholic church. Gives a lot of money to things that are noticed. Even after being vaccinated, this week a teammate of mine who has had cancer and and recent kidney transplant tested positive. Spent a few days in the hospital and got the monoclonal antibodies infusion. So I ask the owner to pray for him, which he said he would, but it was like he was offended that I mentioned COVID. It's like he and others don't want to hear about it, like it will go away if we don't discuss it. He was released from the hospital the other day and is home with symptoms but is recovering. Then we get to my sister in law. She is great. My brother in law divorced his total bitch first wife and reconnected with his now current wife. Very caring, outgoing and values family. My brother in law has a heart attack a few years ago and recently has other things that put him in the compromised category. Well when Covid kicked in last year, all of a sudden she becomes a huge anti vax, conspiracy advocate and would post about it all the time on social media. Non stop about how it's not approved by the FDA, and a method of left wing government control etc. Even when granted approval for emergency use, that was not good enough. I'm not a social media person, but many people in the family put her on ignore for a long while. With the lockdown, I never got the opportunity to discuss it with her. I was concerned that it was a careless approach given my brother in law's issues. She is on the heavier side so that could be a concern for her. Well, four weeks ago, she gets sick. My B-I-L was ok. She had Covid-like symptoms. When asked if she is going to get tested she tells my mother in law that no, what are they going to do, they'll just manage me if I do. Her condition significantly worsens, can hardly breathe. Then my B-I-L starts feeling sick. Then she goes to the hospital and was able to get the monoclonal infusion for them. Since they caught it early for my B-I-L, it cleared him up within two days. Since she waited so long, she had a very sick week and half at home and though numerous times about going into the hospital because of breathing issues. After about ten days when she said she was sicker than she has ever been in her 60+ year life, she finally began feeling better. Then she goes on social media bragging about how good the monoclonal infusion is and how it save her and that everyone should get it. After the scare was over, after telling her how happy we were that they were better, I had to bring up how the infusion, like the vaccine, was not fully approved for use on Covid by the FDA, but was approved for emergency use only!! (Sorry, the devil made me do it) Right after her ordeal, one of the vaccines received full FDA approval. You have talk show hosts dying of Covid who were outspoken against the vax and are telling people to get it but I doubt it will move the needle. A wise person once told me that the key to life was learning from OTHER people's mistakes. Take note when others fuck up and don't do it. You still get the same wisdom without paying the price. I don't get it.
Sorry for the soap box.
Good point about the people not vaxxed who got Covid maybe giving us more protection and closer to herd immunity.
As far as sobering statistics go, think of this one.
Twenty years ago we lost just under 3,000 people to the terrorist attacks in NYC.
In the three days from 9/1 - 9/3, 4,806 people died of Covid in the US. The new cases for the three days 20 days prior, 8/12 - 8/14 were 452,997, resulting in a death rate of 1.06% of reported cases. This is even though as of these statistics, Florida (Fla is cooking the books again but that's another story) and nine other states didn't report their numbers. So the real # is over 5,000.
Imagine that. Over nineteen months since this fucking thing kicked in, with over 50% being vaccinated, another few %'s of unvaccinated previous COVID positives who still have antibodies and we're still reporting over 1,600 deaths a day! Think about that. With some states at over 90% ICU occupancy with over 90% of the ICU patients being unvaxed COVID patients, it will curtail our ability to be as effective treating COVID and it will crowd out other deserving patients with other illnesses from getting ICU beds. So much was and is preventable. "Learn from OTHER people's mistakes" PLEASE. Enough already. Even the Heat Miser got booed for having the audacity to tell people to get vaccinated. The Jeanie is out of the bottle I guess.
I will see my son later today. I'll ask him the latest news from the task force to see if this is supposed to get better soon and will let you know.
Other than that, all things are good. Hope all is well with you guys. Football starts on Thursday night. Get to get my Dallas hate in gear for the opener!!
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Post by nephillymike on Sept 5, 2021 21:41:57 GMT -5
FWIW, my son says they are expecting the apex of the deaths to happen within the next few weeks. One concern is that the spread hasn't really gotten to a lot of states yet. They are hopeful that is just the vaccinations working and not just a delay caused by travel. They are leaning to it being the higher vaccinated places doing the job.
Fingers crossed.
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md717
Pro Bowler
Posts: 276
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Post by md717 on Sept 10, 2021 10:33:34 GMT -5
Interesting stuff, Mike. You asked why I got vaccinated - the short answer is because my wife told me to.  But I would have made that choice on my own with the information that I had at the time, and I would do it again with the information that I have now. I have spent my share of time in a hospital bed, and it's no fun. So if the vaccine will keep me from getting as sick as I might otherwise get and keep me out of the hospital, I'm in. People who have never spent a night in the hospital or worse - a week or more - don't fear that scenario as much as they should. Each time I was in the hospital for longer than a week, I had my wife or other family members with me just about 100% of the time. I can't imagine how much worse that experience would be if one had to go through it alone. It's very difficult to advocate for yourself when you're really, really sick - or worse, on a ventilator. In my case, my wife is an Advanced Practice Provider and speaks the language. And she doesn't trust nurses/providers to do the right thing 100% of the time. (Ironic, I know - but she has been in the trenches of ERs and ICUs and she knows there is a range of competence amongst medical people - just like in any other profession.) The death numbers are staggering, and tragic. Each and every life lost is one too many. However, some context helps a little, it seems to me. In 2019 average deaths per day (of all causes) was 7,821. Heart disease is the largest killer, contributing on average 1,805 to that number on a daily basis. I'd be interested to know how many deaths we are over the average number over the past 18 months - I'm not sure that data is available. This would get to One's point about how many people are dying "with" vs. "from." It seems possible to me that we may not be as far over the average as the number of Covid deaths that have been reported. That would mean that many people died "with" and not necessarily "from." (Perhaps you would find that average deaths ascribed to heart disease are way down, for example.) Here in Lancaster County they say that we're around 50% vaccination rate - but that's of the entire population and includes kids who are ineligible at this point. I don't know why they don't report what percentage of eligible adults have been vaccinated. Cases are still running high here - but there again we don't have much info. I would love to know how many of the positive tests were of people who were asymptomatic but had been exposed. Since July 1st there have been 33 deaths in Lancaster County - out of 550,000 people. As one who scans the obituaries every day in the paper, I can tell you that something like 10 people die per day in this county. That's about 700 total deaths since 7/1, and only 33 of those were Covid-related. ("With" or "From" we don't know.) I encourage people to get vaccinated when asked. But in the end - it's their choice. Or should be. The president's message yesterday was pretty disconcerting to me. Our 2nd oldest son (one you haven't met) was vaccinated and tested positive for Covid earlier this week. He was pretty sick over the weekend - fever, etc. But no hospitalization. He's feeling much better as of yesterday - ironically the day he got his test results back. So yeah - this is no joke. But the polarization is not helping anyone. You might be surprised to hear that I blame this on the American Left, in large part. Our local newspaper editorial page has become almost unreadable, such is their self-righteous preaching. And I love it when they say, "Why does it have to be political?" Because they MADE it political, that's why. I won't elaborate much more on that, but . . . it's a serious point of irritation to me and I think it's in large part why there is so much resistance to vaccines. It's hard to trust people who confess they lie to you for your own good. (Fauci, when he said that he only said masks weren't necessary to preserve the supply of masks for healthcare workers - for example.) Your Dallas hate must have paid off! Now we'll see what the Birds have got on Sunday. Be well! |
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Post by One on Sept 13, 2021 8:57:35 GMT -5
Every private business has the right (maybe the responsibility) to establish rules for their employees. Your business has daily contact with private citizens in their homes in a generally "blue" area. My guess is that a majority of your clients believe in masks and the vaccine, and if not, wouldn't object to your employees wearing masks and being vaccinated. If I'm making the rules in a situation like that, I tell my employees that if you're in contact with our clients you wear a mask unless the client signs a waiver stating you don't have to wear one. I will never require employees to wear a yellow "V" on your shirt identifying you as having been vaccinated or to divulge your vaccination status. I believe the federal HIPAA law protects the confidentiality of our health records and I'm not aware of an exemption for COVID related information.
The government's job is to protect us, not manage us and not control us - they're not doing their job very well these days. Keeping the conversation limited to your subject of COVID, while the government mandates masks and vaccines they're importing thousands of illegal immigrants daily and relocating many of them to undisclosed locations throughout the country. We know many of them have COVID, though we don't know how many. The narrative is focused mostly on reported cases and the reporting of deaths is ambiguous at best. Employers are being strong-armed into mandating vaccinations for their employees yet the government admits there is no such requirement for the immigrants they're planting throughout our cities and towns.
I don't understand the logic of an open border or the relocation throughout the country of people who are by definition breaking the law. What's more confusing is, if we're going to ignore our own laws, why we aren't vaccinating immigrants before relocating them. It's difficult to look at this without considering some intentional malfeasance.
Responsible business owners are left to struggle with how to do their part in protecting the health of their employees and customers while the government is making the situation worse, it seems intentionally.
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Post by One on Sept 14, 2021 7:29:22 GMT -5
I think this article from The Atlantic fits into the conversation: Our Most Reliable Pandemic Number Is Losing Meaning A new study suggests that almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases. |
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Post by nephillymike on Sept 18, 2021 21:22:23 GMT -5
MD & One,
Good stuff. There's a lot here. A few points:
MD - KNEW you did it because the boss told you to!! I didn't have to be insulting and you admitting it took me off the hook!
I agree on the political point. I think our party has made it more political than the left, but I'm open for how you see it the other way.
One, our clientele is heavy Red, but it is interesting to see all of the rich Blues leaving the city of Phila in droves because our democratic mayor can't keep them safe. All the cops retiring or applying for jobs in the burbs. Fuck him and the horse he rode in on. And he's a LaSalle grad no less!! Disgrace! But I digress.
The border situation, on mostly all fronts, is bad. As it relates to COVID, it is a disgrace and hypocritical. The VP's lack of involvement, fuck her too as well as her incompetent boss. And Trump, fuck him too as he rallied others more than his own because he's a fucking ass hole. However, I think that even if they were vaccinating all of the illegals, the anti vax population would find another "reason" to object. How about this one. What if people who forgo the vaccination (maybe because they don't have the full FDA approval (pfizer just got it) and are emergency use only or other reasons, what if they also have to forgo the use of the emergency use only monoclonal anti bodies? Use that stuff on people who were concerned about themselves and others to be vaxxed?) Funny thing is, my two neighbors who are ICU nurses say that, surprise surprise, when really sick, all of a sudden they are very open to the emergency use monoclonal antibodies. Imagine that.
One- I will ask about the hospitalization. Seems like a stretch because some states are on divert where they are only treating people who have the best chance to survive because they are maxed out (Idaho).
My son has been working long hours on his insurance company's task force trying to estimate the cost and the trends and figure out what the fuck is happening. They are struggling. The impact is over 10X what they thought it would be a month ago. The mystery is that the hospitalization rate of the non vax population is over three times what it was for the entire population before the vaccines came out. Think about that. total hospitalizations haven't reached the height of where they were, however the rate of hospitalization is much higher. They weren't expecting this as they thought that the youth and thought that fact that many anti vaxers already had COVID would keep hospitalizations in check. Not so. Not so at all. This variant being three times as contagious and the removal of most mitigating protocols are playing a much bigger role than anticipated.
Here's the takeaway. The last four days; 9/14-9/17, we had 8,434 Covid deaths. We're averaging the same number of deaths that we did back in late February. The total new cases for the four days 20 days prior was 724,552, for a death rate of reported new cases of 1.16%, which has gone up from expected 0.50% and is approaching the death rate of 1.50% we saw without vaccines. My brother in law has a small business where 4 of his 7 EE's got it. All unvaxed. 57% of ees out for over a week. Fingers crossed, we're OK so far. But Pa's deaths and cases are climbing quickly and I'm concerned it will hit hard soon.
Other than that, the play was really good. That John Wilkes Booth is quite the actor!
Have a nice Sunday.
Go Birds!! Looking forward to my weekly escape from reality to watch the sport I love (and love to bet!!)
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md717
Pro Bowler
Posts: 276
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Post by md717 on Sept 19, 2021 21:03:19 GMT -5
Yup. Largely I do what I'm told. (By my wife, that is. Otherwise I have a bit of a problem with authority.) It's been working for me for 25+ years, why stop now? She did almost kill me a couple of times, but saved my life a couple of other times. It's complicated, but I think it comes out pretty even in the end.
Tough loss today - and sucks that Dallass won.
You asked why I think the Left made it political. I'd be interested to hear why you think it's the other way 'round.
Here's why I think that the politicization of this pandemic is the Left's doing:
Both Kamala and Joe said they wouldn't trust a "Trump" vaccine.
The Leftist press was merciless in condemning Trump for refusing to wear a mask in public.
Once in office, Biden refused to acknowledge that the vaccine was Trump's great success.
Leftist governors shut down their economies, Republican governors didn't. Results? Same from a disease point of view, if not better in most cases - but economically the results very different.
Leftist politicians caught numerous times violating their own orders.
Social media squashing anything that doesn't reflect the current Leftist grasp of the "facts."
I could go on at some length.
Still only 30-something deaths in Lancaster County since July 1. 550,000 souls live here. Why the fucking panic?
I get that you think Donald Trump is an asshole. I would be remiss in my grammar nazi role if I didn't point out that it's typically one word. Not "ass hole" but "asshole." I know, small details. But I have a role to play.
So the question really is - what about the "asshole" would you not welcome back? Do you like the tens of thousands of illegal border crossers? How 'bout that graceful and well-planned exit from Afghanistan? Or, maybe you're fan of the inflation numbers? I know - you've gotta be a fan of the 3.5T budget bill, indebting your children and mine for decades to come?
The last eight months have been a complete disaster. I'd take anyone over Joe Biden to lead us out of this mess.
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Post by One on Sept 20, 2021 9:00:27 GMT -5
You beat me to it, MD! Reading mikeynumbers' my first comment was going to the be about ass hole.  Mike and I have talked politics a few times and I know he hates Trump, I also know Mike's a really smart guy. My conclusion is, not that Trump can't be an asshole, but that Mike is a victim of geographic political exposure and overreliance on mainstream media indoctrination. You're not alone, Mike, millions share the room with you. The media is the principal culprit, not just because of what they say, but what they don't say. Exhibit #1 (among literally thousands), Hunter Biden. My apologies, Mike, for talking about you rather than to you. Kind of like deaths from vs. with ( ) which I'll return to in a minute. Interesting that most of your employees fall more on the conservative side, but my point about masks was more directed towards your clientele. I'm also guilty of involuntary eye rolling when people start talking about COVID. It's not because I think the virus is a joke or that it's not potentially deadly, but because it's so difficult in this era to know what the truth is - so many people just assume what the government and/or media tell them is THE truth. And, respectfully, I wouldn't be surprised if actuaries aren't victims of the shell game. I don't know where you son's data comes from, but if the available data they use is skewed it would seem their findings would be also. The point is that when information is controlled the analysis becomes irrelevant. Our major problem is that we don't know what the truth is. Note that I'm not saying we don't have or aren't provided the truth, only that we should have no confidence that what we know is the truth. I'm not sure if I said that coherently. Exhibit #2: The linked story doesn't claim this kind of thing is wide-spread enough to significantly alter the numbers, but it does pose that question. Again, the purpose of my continuing to raise this issue is that I don't know why anyone could absolutely rely on most any facts we're given. I'm often accused of being a conspiracy theorist, I wouldn't be surprised if that hadn't crossed your mind too, but there are too many instances of disinformation, misinformation and censoring which have been exposed throughout the past decade that should make any thinking person question most everything they're told - just as you did with the hospitalization article I shared. I'm personally not as concerned about rising number of cases just because the news focuses on it, and we can't put much faith into the death count when there has been continuing evidence that the numbers aren't real. The news focused on Trump's collusion and ignored Hunter's laptop (and his business partner who offered evidence that Joe was gaining wealth from foreign nations while VP) and now they're ignoring Biden's criminal exit from Afghanistan and plethora of other terrible decisions while focusing again on cases. Hey, how about criticizing DeSantis for establishing monoclonal antibody locations and when it's successful reducing his supply. When the source of our information is clearly playing for one team, believing what we're told seems like folly to me. BTW, for me this is a throw-away year for the Eagles. That they hung with the 9er's and could have won the game is encouraging. The talented rookies, Hurts and Sirianni all should be expected to have growing pains. I want to see them learn from and eliminate mistakes ... like not sneaking on a foot-and-goal play. I want next year's basket of high draft picks to be used on multiple players not just one. The OL and DL need to get younger. |
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Post by nephillymike on Sept 26, 2021 11:13:40 GMT -5
Good Morning Gents,
An update on recent developments, still bad but improving:
5 day average reported deaths 9/20-9/24 = 1,923
5 day average reported new cases same period = 125,553
5 day average reported new cases 20 days prior (8/31-9/4) = 177,802
death rate = 1.08 %
If you use the last 4 days the avg deaths are 2,165, new cases 133,087, avg new case 20 days prior = 179,461 and death rate = 1.21 %.
Not that 9,617 deaths in five days is anything to dismiss, but we're on the way down the slope.
Our weekly average daily deaths and average new cases is on par of where we were on February 8th.
The deaths were more of a concern back then vs our concerns now. I guess there is lack of concern because of all of the unvaccinated people who are dying and at a younger age than the old folks back then, but who knows. I wish all lives were valued more for people to change, but I digress.
So, we are on the way down the slope. Weekly average new cases are down 34% from their high on Sept 2nd. Weekly average deaths are down 10% since the high on 9/18. Based on what the experts have seen in countries that are ahead of us on the curve, we will likely continue down the slope for a week or two before the uptick results of kids returning to school. New cases (and deaths lagged by 20 days) will likely go back up to heights above where we are now but not as high as our recent highs of a few weeks ago.
On the school front, the kids have been back to school for a few weeks. The rules in Philly say that if 3 kids in any class get COVID, that class has to go to home schooling for a while. If 3% of the schools kids population gets COVID at the same time, the entire school goes to home schooling for a while. Masks are required but with kids it is tough to enforce for them to do it properly. At my daughter's school, her homeroom was told on Friday that they got their 3rd case and the kids were dismissed early. FWIW, they like being at school and they were crying on the way out. All classes of 3rd grade were sent home this week. The latest COVID case was aymptomatic and she says there are three others she suspects have it in her homeroom as they got the cough. School - parent politics make it tough to demand testing of kids if it offends liberties of their parents so it is what it is. It's looking like a shutdown may happen in the near future but who knows. She's been tested six times in three weeks. It's not so much the kids, but the unvaxed family and contacts who now are at greater risk.
I will reply to your well written political posts later on tonight. Got some off day honey do lists to attend to ......... grrrrr........
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Post by nephillymike on Sept 26, 2021 21:32:29 GMT -5
Yup. Largely I do what I'm told. (By my wife, that is. Otherwise I have a bit of a problem with authority.) It's been working for me for 25+ years, why stop now? She did almost kill me a couple of times, but saved my life a couple of other times. It's complicated, but I think it comes out pretty even in the end. Tough loss today - and sucks that Dallass won. You asked why I think the Left made it political. I'd be interested to hear why you think it's the other way 'round. Here's why I think that the politicization of this pandemic is the Left's doing: Both Kamala and Joe said they wouldn't trust a "Trump" vaccine. The Leftist press was merciless in condemning Trump for refusing to wear a mask in public. Once in office, Biden refused to acknowledge that the vaccine was Trump's great success. Leftist governors shut down their economies, Republican governors didn't. Results? Same from a disease point of view, if not better in most cases - but economically the results very different. Leftist politicians caught numerous times violating their own orders. Social media squashing anything that doesn't reflect the current Leftist grasp of the "facts." I could go on at some length. Still only 30-something deaths in Lancaster County since July 1. 550,000 souls live here. Why the fucking panic? I get that you think Donald Trump is an asshole. I would be remiss in my grammar nazi role if I didn't point out that it's typically one word. Not "ass hole" but "asshole." I know, small details. But I have a role to play. So the question really is - what about the "asshole" would you not welcome back? Do you like the tens of thousands of illegal border crossers? How 'bout that graceful and well-planned exit from Afghanistan? Or, maybe you're fan of the inflation numbers? I know - you've gotta be a fan of the 3.5T budget bill, indebting your children and mine for decades to come? The last eight months have been a complete disaster. I'd take anyone over Joe Biden to lead us out of this mess. Thanks MD, This entire thing all started when the President of the US, leader of the free world, didn't take this pandemic as anything but a road bump to the economy. He hid the severity in the beginning and acted like it was fabricated for months then when he got it, he was lucky enough to have access to the drugs that many of the poor peons who got it before him did not have access too. Yet he still chimed on. Even after Fat Boy Christie got it and many other Republicans at the event, they changed their tune, but did Trump? No. It was all fake news. It was all the Democrats trying to fabricate this, trying to bring him down. His flock of lemmings followed along. Anti government. Fake news etc etc. 700,000 deaths later, do you really think he got it right? I know, fight to the end and all, never give in. It was political with him from day one. He purposefully downplayed the severity of this for personal gain ( or lack of personal loss more accurately) from day one. Was it political on the other side? Absolutely. At first, they were having wet dreams when this thing broke. Then it hit the blue states hard and it was all of a sudden a concern. The red states were relishing in the fact that it didn't hit them much so of course it had to be made up, right? Then they got it real hard but they are fighting that damn vaccine UNTIL their life depends on it then all of a sudden they find Jesus real quick. Yes, there are hypocrites, plenty of Dems in their do what I say not what I do BS. And that border thing is a disgrace, both from policy and health safety. But as the President of the United States, the buck stops there. He inacted first. He had the job, and truth be told, if he did his job and paid it the attention it deserved, he would have won re-election. So he ultimately paid the political price. Millions of voters waited in the middle for him to put the good and health of the country front and center. Millions of voters waited to not have to vote for the senile one and his incompetent running mate who couldn't garner any votes in the primaries. Trump was Trump and it cost him. I wonder how my Libertarian guy would have done LOL. 40% on one side thinks he won the election, 40% on the other side thinks the US systematically practices racism to keep people of color down. 80% of the people in this country are believing blatant lies and it is tearing this country apart. Unbelievable. Then you add in Covid, and you got the yahoo Republicans on the one side who believed Trump's BS and the African Americans on the other side afraid that this is a redo of the 1950's syphilis scandal and there are tons of people who should have been vaccinated by now. All BS division. I have said many times that I agree on most of Trump's policies. As far as the deficits go, Trump signed the first bill ( when it started in the Republican Senate BTW) and wanted a much bigger stimulus on the second bump than they granted him. He's not fiscally responsible. The pork would have just served a different set of masters. Also, maybe the exit would have been better managed. It's hard to believe that anyone could have done worse. However, it was he who decided to negotiate with the Taliban and leave the Afghan government in the shadows. Negotiating with the terrorists, imagine that. So the early collapse of the Afghan government would have likely happened under his watch too, since he set it up that way. Maybe he would have had the sense to keep a few thousand troops in there longer. Maybe. Not sure if that would have been consistent with his desire to be less encumbered internationally though, but maybe it would have. As far as Lancaster County's low death rate, yes it's hard to be concerned with so few deaths. Makes sense to enjoy life like we did here in the late summer. Although with the lack of congestion there versus Philly, you would think they would be much better comparatively in the death rate. Lancaster County, with all of that space, has 2,247 deaths per million as compared to 2,462 per mill in Philly. Better, yes, but given the big difference in people per square mile, no subways, row homes etc, you would think it would be night and day. Enjoy it my friend. And just for the record, fuck Joe Biden too!! |
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Post by nephillymike on Sept 26, 2021 22:16:00 GMT -5
You beat me to it, MD! Reading mikeynumbers' my first comment was going to the be about ass hole. Mike and I have talked politics a few times and I know he hates Trump, I also know Mike's a really smart guy. My conclusion is, not that Trump can't be an asshole, but that Mike is a victim of geographic political exposure and overreliance on mainstream media indoctrination. You're not alone, Mike, millions share the room with you. The media is the principal culprit, not just because of what they say, but what they don't say. Exhibit #1 (among literally thousands), Hunter Biden. My apologies, Mike, for talking about you rather than to you. Kind of like deaths from vs. with ( ) which I'll return to in a minute. Interesting that most of your employees fall more on the conservative side, but my point about masks was more directed towards your clientele. I'm also guilty of involuntary eye rolling when people start talking about COVID. It's not because I think the virus is a joke or that it's not potentially deadly, but because it's so difficult in this era to know what the truth is - so many people just assume what the government and/or media tell them is THE truth. And, respectfully, I wouldn't be surprised if actuaries aren't victims of the shell game. I don't know where you son's data comes from, but if the available data they use is skewed it would seem their findings would be also. The point is that when information is controlled the analysis becomes irrelevant. Our major problem is that we don't know what the truth is. Note that I'm not saying we don't have or aren't provided the truth, only that we should have no confidence that what we know is the truth. I'm not sure if I said that coherently. Exhibit #2: The linked story doesn't claim this kind of thing is wide-spread enough to significantly alter the numbers, but it does pose that question. Again, the purpose of my continuing to raise this issue is that I don't know why anyone could absolutely rely on most any facts we're given. I'm often accused of being a conspiracy theorist, I wouldn't be surprised if that hadn't crossed your mind too, but there are too many instances of disinformation, misinformation and censoring which have been exposed throughout the past decade that should make any thinking person question most everything they're told - just as you did with the hospitalization article I shared. I'm personally not as concerned about rising number of cases just because the news focuses on it, and we can't put much faith into the death count when there has been continuing evidence that the numbers aren't real. The news focused on Trump's collusion and ignored Hunter's laptop (and his business partner who offered evidence that Joe was gaining wealth from foreign nations while VP) and now they're ignoring Biden's criminal exit from Afghanistan and plethora of other terrible decisions while focusing again on cases. Hey, how about criticizing DeSantis for establishing monoclonal antibody locations and when it's successful reducing his supply. When the source of our information is clearly playing for one team, believing what we're told seems like folly to me. BTW, for me this is a throw-away year for the Eagles. That they hung with the 9er's and could have won the game is encouraging. The talented rookies, Hurts and Sirianni all should be expected to have growing pains. I want to see them learn from and eliminate mistakes ... like not sneaking on a foot-and-goal play. I want next year's basket of high draft picks to be used on multiple players not just one. The OL and DL need to get younger. Thanks for the reply One. Both my clients and fellow employees are more Republican than Democrats, more Trumpsters than liberal. The difference is that the employees don't give a shit who knows it, while most of the rich Trumpsters try to keep it tempered in public. As far as masks go, they do what the owner tells them to do. The owner is over it to the point if you even mention Covid, he gets like Trump and is offended that it is a threat to business, (PS, the PPP I got for him treated him very, very well) and as such, he has not enforced vaccinations and he has not pushed masks unless the customers complain about it. When they do, he is shocked how they didn't follow "policy". No geographical political exposure on my part that would have me lean left. Probably the opposite, as I have many cop friends and they hate the Philadelphia Kinney run embarrassment as do the hundreds of rich people we've moved out of the city since last May and as much as I do. When I decide to seek non sports, non accounting-business news, I get it two ways. Most times I will read Real Clear politics or policy to read articles on both sides of an issue. If I decide to dip a toe in the cesspool of political "news", I am smart enough to know that both CNN and FOX are selling a product and not news, so I will painfully watch both of them and put it together myself afterwards. I rarely do this. Most of the times, I do the RCP route. Less bullshit and non truths than those other two outlets. I think both TV sides are full of shit, so I find the written word to be better as if I read opposing views, they can't out shout the other side. As far as deaths from Covid or with Covid go, there are actuarial tools like excess death studies that scientists use for Pandemics, that look at the macro picture. The macro picture has more excess deaths than the 700K attributed to Covid. Have their been deaths "with covid", yes. Have their been many deaths early on attributed to pneumonia and flu instead of covid, yes. Hunter Biden's mess that they hid doesn't compare to Trumps Covid actions. Sure the liberal press probably hid a lot of it. But if Trump did his job, (and wasn't such an asshole (see how I cleaned that up), they wouldn't have elected the corrupt senile and his side kick. I'm distrustful of government, but you take it way further than I. We all believe some of what government tells us. With most, they believe what their side of government tells them to believe. Fake news, the election was fixed!! Everyone's a racist!! Emergency use only approved vaccines aren't safe! (but when my ass is real sick in the hospital, emergency use only monoclonal antibodies are OK!) Choose your side and believe. And about vaccines, somehow Americans of a different time before mass disinformation, were fine with vaccines for: Diptheria Whooping cough Tetanus Influenza B Measles Mumps Rubella Polio Chicken Pox Hepatitus B We had to have these to go to school. And up until 1972, small pox. The reason why small pox vaccine became unnecessary is that the vaccine successfully eradicated that disease. A disease that killed 30% of those who were infected was done away with. Can you imagine if we had to debate the merits of the small pox vaccine today? The idiots of our society would have all kind of conspiracy theories about that one!! I'm just fed up with this country and the bull shit. It's been a real long 18 months. Be safe up there in Bumfuck! Let's hope we all have an Eagles victory tomorrow to change my sour mood. I think we split with them, and I expect us to each hold home field, but maybe they'll surprise us. I'd feel better with Brooks and Mailata..... Take care my friend ! |
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Post by One on Sept 28, 2021 19:24:36 GMT -5
Yeah, sometimes I wonder if I'm over the edge myself, but then I reflect on how I really feel, and the bottom line is "I don't know anything." I wonder why I read quotes from reputable people that have never found their way into what I read in the mainstream and I wonder why they are ignored in my conversations with people who disagree with me. I say the things I do mostly because I'm looking for something or someone to either prove it false or offer a reasonable explanation.
I don't know if the election was rigged or not, but I do know that it's weird that the people who tell us it was the most secure ever are the same people fighting to prevent proof that it was. These are the same people that tell us election security is racist, just like all white people. And I'm puzzled why good spirited, intelligent people just skip over that, just as I don't know why it's so easy to believe that a man who had 10 million more votes than when he was first elected was outscored by twice that amount by an old man with a clear history of lies, under achievement, gaffs, racism and clear indications of mental decline. Again, none of that proves much, but that it's largely overlooked by the mainstream makes me wonder why. I have yet to have people explain any of that to me other than Trump's an asshole.
I'm really not a conspiracy theorist, I just find it hard to accept that such a long list of coincidences are ignored while the narrative consistently returns to the hated orange man, and why it's almost never mentioned how much better things in both the world and in this country were when we had an asshole for president. I don't understand why Trump and his allies are consistently maligned and jailed but his opponents who do far worse keep getting get-out-of-jail-free cards.
Please don't read this as a cute way of being sarcastic, it's not. I agree and hope we're friends, we've been through enough bullshit together over the years and shared enough pain and joy with the Eagles. Every day I hope Trump doesn't run again. Not because I don't like what he accomplished and not because he didn't have his fuck ups. It's because he's a perfect target, and devious people focus on that and use it to their advantage at the expense of truth and the American people.
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Post by nephillymike on Oct 2, 2021 10:48:49 GMT -5
Yeah, sometimes I wonder if I'm over the edge myself, but then I reflect on how I really feel, and the bottom line is "I don't know anything." I wonder why I read quotes from reputable people that have never found their way into what I read in the mainstream and I wonder why they are ignored in my conversations with people who disagree with me. I say the things I do mostly because I'm looking for something or someone to either prove it false or offer a reasonable explanation. I don't know if the election was rigged or not, but I do know that it's weird that the people who tell us it was the most secure ever are the same people fighting to prevent proof that it was. These are the same people that tell us election security is racist, just like all white people. And I'm puzzled why good spirited, intelligent people just skip over that, just as I don't know why it's so easy to believe that a man who had 10 million more votes than when he was first elected was outscored by twice that amount by an old man with a clear history of lies, under achievement, gaffs, racism and clear indications of mental decline. Again, none of that proves much, but that it's largely overlooked by the mainstream makes me wonder why. I have yet to have people explain any of that to me other than Trump's an asshole. I'm really not a conspiracy theorist, I just find it hard to accept that such a long list of coincidences are ignored while the narrative consistently returns to the hated orange man, and why it's almost never mentioned how much better things in both the world and in this country were when we had an asshole for president. I don't understand why Trump and his allies are consistently maligned and jailed but his opponents who do far worse keep getting get-out-of-jail-free cards. Please don't read this as a cute way of being sarcastic, it's not. I agree and hope we're friends, we've been through enough bullshit together over the years and shared enough pain and joy with the Eagles. Every day I hope Trump doesn't run again. Not because I don't like what he accomplished and not because he didn't have his fuck ups. It's because he's a perfect target, and devious people focus on that and use it to their advantage at the expense of truth and the American people. First off, we are definitely friends regardless of where we fall on the Trump spectrum. I always enjoy our discussions whether on this site or in those long phone calls on occasion. I, unlike most these days, look forward to debate and discussion as I firmly believe more comes out of a reasonable debate with someone knowledgeable who disagrees with you than someone who agrees with you. Whether that be learning something from the "other side" , or just strengthening your own opinion since it is battle tested. It can be a very productive process. My three kids have all graduated college within the last few years and sadly, from what they say, that type of environment is not nurtured in college these days. Add to that the heavy liberal lean of most universities, and that circle jerk environment is dangerous to society. Cancel culture at its finest. Funny thing is, if you and I took one of those political spectrum tests, I believe that we would find that we very alike in our views. I'm probably a little more moderate on some things, but I think I'm more cynical and skeptical of both sides of government whereas you are more skeptical of the left. You always ask the tough questions. You say that things are ignored, but there are plenty of writers and columnists on the right who do bring up many of the issues you mention. Are they getting airtime on CNN, MSNBC, no, but people interested in debate can find the other side of the argument. That's why when I am looking for news, I go to a place like RCP as I enjoy seeing both sides. As far as how Trump could have gained 10 million votes and still lost the election handily is because his pitching sucked. He gave up more votes than he won. The hatred of him was greater than the votes he scored for his side. Handling of Covid played a large part in that. I don't remember if it was at your request or one of my other friends at the time, but someone asked me to use my auditing skills to examine the election results to see if it looked legit on paper. I spent a lot of time on it and I concluded that it was. That was a while ago if I didn't share it with you at the time I can dig it up and share it with you. If you remember, I did the same thing with the theory that the police killings were overwhelmingly racially biased. After many hours of work, looking at unbiased data, I concluded that it was not true. In both studies, the data was clear. In the old days, I would have convinced some people from both sides to change their view based on data. These days, each side was not budging from their original opinion. They both loved the data that supported their views, but gave very little credence to the data that didn't support their side. Welcome to America 2021. Now we have Biden, fucking up big time, and for partisan Americans on the right, it is an opportunity to gain back the executive seat. I too hope that Trump doesn't run again. However, the diversion and division that he is nurturing in the Republican Party will make it very difficult to produce a candidate who will win in 2024. Biden and the Democrats are throwing up softballs and we're going to score a lot of runs, but our pitching still sucks. My big fear when Trump ran his campaign that he was going to rid the government of a Republican President for two to three election cycles afterwards. Biden is giving the right a real shot. Sad thing is, all of this partisan talk is really destructive. we should be taking a break from politics and do what's best for the country. The media on both sides prevent that reality. I'm hoping to have some time to dip a toe back into reading up on politics some day soon and maybe one of our "famous" calls can happen then. Be safe my friend. Hope all is well with you and the family. |
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Post by One on Oct 4, 2021 10:54:59 GMT -5
First, I have to note that it's strange to have these discussions in a football forum. I agree with most of what you said. The main problem with your comment about the media on the right asking the questions is that I'd guess the majority of Americans get their news from the mainstream sources. I don't think there are many like you (and me) who try to graze in both fields. Many of the "neutral" sources aren't that at all, and they reveal their bias things like "the false claims of election fraud" rather than "unproven", or something similar. And, honestly, I have no idea how your audit could prove anything whereas so much of the data may not have even been disclosed yet. Again, I'm not saying it was fraudulent, I'm saying let's do a complete, thorough, and transparent audit in all of the contested precincts that could potentially have impacted the outcome of the election: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin. You left out a key ingredient of Trump's added 10 million votes, the fact that we're told Biden had 80 million; more than any other candidate ever, including Obama. I completely understand and believe there were a substantial number of votes against Trump (as opposed to for Biden), but I have a really hard time believing that many people voted for a person they rarely heard from. I acknowledge the media played a role in his election by failing to review his history of racism and mendacity, for not airing him almost falling from a stage, of him slurring his words, his frequent unintelligible responses to questions, and their intentional censuring of his son's laptop revelations, but couldn't those things be remotely connected to fraud? I know it's not the same thing as accusations of multiple counting of votes, questions of machines illegally connected to the internet, of ghost votes and a coordinated pause of tabulation in key locations. When all the pieces are put together there's a troubling connection that reasonable minds would at least question, and considering the deep division of our country I've yet to hear an explanation as to why one side wants proof and the other is obstructing the search for it. BTW, the same questions abound on COVID. Transparency and full disclosure are not present. The government doesn't treat us like adults. They and the media hide relevant information, play loose with facts, demand obedience and punish dissent. While some countries are beginning to treat this virus much like a bad case of the flu by removing restrictions and mandates, our government is doubling down with mandates, fines and warnings that maybe we won't have a normal Christmas. Just as with the election, open debate is not only not tolerated, it's penalized. The dishonesty of the government's approach is stunning, knowingly relocating illegal immigrants with COVID and not requiring them to be vaccinated is probably the most egregious. Putting all of the seemingly unrelated incidents together paints an entirely different picture than that of each when viewed separately. We're in deep shit, Mike, I hope we have a way out. With all of that, I actually think the Eagles are on the right track. That's hoping that Sirianni can grow into his role, not only as a play-caller but as a CEO. The discipline of the team is astoundingly poor, i.e. penalties. Last week I thought Hurts was a lost cause, but he rebounded and showed a lot of promise. He needs work, but he's got the desire to see, accept and try to correct his mistakes and a full season may be what he needs. I won't be sad if they keep playing games like this one and lose more than they win. Of course we all hope Wentz plays reasonably well, 75% of the snaps and the Colts keep losing. If Miami does the same thing and we end up with three picks in the top 10-15, and if Hurts shows he can be the man, maybe the team can begin to build a perennial contender - redundant caveat of HC. |
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Post by One on Oct 7, 2021 13:59:07 GMT -5
As to your comment about Trump and how he handled COVID, I just saw this: More Americans died of COVID this year than all of 2020 ... This kind of news will affect Biden, but probably only with informed Independents. Most Republicans are already against him and most Democrats are brainwashed. Although I still don't believe the numbers, at least they're being consistent. It would seem Trump was at a significant disadvantage because he was being chased by an unknown beast and trying to learn how to fight it on the go while Biden campaigned that he would beat it and had the benefit of both Trump's learning curve and his successes. If there's a 2024 election the Democrats will lose by a landslide as long as the voting machines aren't rigged and the tabulation is transparent. If Biden doesn't finish his term the severity of the landslide probably increases with Harris, but either way there'll be a lot of damage done before we can get someone in the WH who is actually qualified. Gun to your head, you have only two choices to lead the country: Biden/Harris or Trump/Pence. Who do you pick? |
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md717
Pro Bowler
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Post by md717 on Oct 9, 2021 8:34:41 GMT -5
Thanks MD, This entire thing all started when the President of the US, leader of the free world, didn't take this pandemic as anything but a road bump to the economy. He hid the severity in the beginning and acted like it was fabricated for months then when he got it, he was lucky enough to have access to the drugs that many of the poor peons who got it before him did not have access too. Yet he still chimed on. Even after Fat Boy Christie got it and many other Republicans at the event, they changed their tune, but did Trump? No. It was all fake news. It was all the Democrats trying to fabricate this, trying to bring him down. His flock of lemmings followed along. Anti government. Fake news etc etc. 700,000 deaths later, do you really think he got it right? I know, fight to the end and all, never give in. It was political with him from day one. He purposefully downplayed the severity of this for personal gain ( or lack of personal loss more accurately) from day one. Was it political on the other side? Absolutely. At first, they were having wet dreams when this thing broke. Then it hit the blue states hard and it was all of a sudden a concern. The red states were relishing in the fact that it didn't hit them much so of course it had to be made up, right? Then they got it real hard but they are fighting that damn vaccine UNTIL their life depends on it then all of a sudden they find Jesus real quick. Yes, there are hypocrites, plenty of Dems in their do what I say not what I do BS. And that border thing is a disgrace, both from policy and health safety. But as the President of the United States, the buck stops there. He inacted first. He had the job, and truth be told, if he did his job and paid it the attention it deserved, he would have won re-election. So he ultimately paid the political price. Millions of voters waited in the middle for him to put the good and health of the country front and center. Millions of voters waited to not have to vote for the senile one and his incompetent running mate who couldn't garner any votes in the primaries. Trump was Trump and it cost him. I wonder how my Libertarian guy would have done LOL. 40% on one side thinks he won the election, 40% on the other side thinks the US systematically practices racism to keep people of color down. 80% of the people in this country are believing blatant lies and it is tearing this country apart. Unbelievable. Then you add in Covid, and you got the yahoo Republicans on the one side who believed Trump's BS and the African Americans on the other side afraid that this is a redo of the 1950's syphilis scandal and there are tons of people who should have been vaccinated by now. All BS division. I have said many times that I agree on most of Trump's policies. As far as the deficits go, Trump signed the first bill ( when it started in the Republican Senate BTW) and wanted a much bigger stimulus on the second bump than they granted him. He's not fiscally responsible. The pork would have just served a different set of masters. Also, maybe the exit would have been better managed. It's hard to believe that anyone could have done worse. However, it was he who decided to negotiate with the Taliban and leave the Afghan government in the shadows. Negotiating with the terrorists, imagine that. So the early collapse of the Afghan government would have likely happened under his watch too, since he set it up that way. Maybe he would have had the sense to keep a few thousand troops in there longer. Maybe. Not sure if that would have been consistent with his desire to be less encumbered internationally though, but maybe it would have. As far as Lancaster County's low death rate, yes it's hard to be concerned with so few deaths. Makes sense to enjoy life like we did here in the late summer. Although with the lack of congestion there versus Philly, you would think they would be much better comparatively in the death rate. Lancaster County, with all of that space, has 2,247 deaths per million as compared to 2,462 per mill in Philly. Better, yes, but given the big difference in people per square mile, no subways, row homes etc, you would think it would be night and day. Enjoy it my friend. And just for the record, fuck Joe Biden too!! I said I'd be interested to hear why you thought it was the right (or the former president) that was responsible for politicizing the pandemic, and I was right - that was interesting! It is very interesting (and perhaps a bit alarming) how two people can observe the same events and come away with two completely different impressions. Perhaps it's because we observe the events through different sets of filters. You've said (in various colorful ways) that Trump is the origin of the politicization of this public health crisis - that he didn't take it seriously, downplayed the severity, accused his opponents of manufacturing or over-hyping it to hurt him, etc. Here are some things that I remember: Trump prohibited inbound flights from China, and subsequently from Europe, to widespread condemnation by his opponents - including the current president. (Xenophobia, blah blah blah.) Trump ramped up the production of ventilators - not an easy manufacturing feat - in response to the widespread cries for same. Turned out ventilators were not great treatment methods, but no one knew that at the time. Trump initiated the Warp Speed project which produced multiple vaccines in nine months when Fauci et al were saying "three years, minimum" at that point in time. Trump refused to accept that "reality." I could go on, but the point is that there are numerous things in my memory that indicate that Trump in fact took it very seriously. His opponents, meanwhile, attempted to sell the very narrative you're putting forth by suggesting that Trump wasn't taking it seriously because he refused to do the things that they wanted him to do. They writhed in fury when he refused to wear a mask at his public appearances, for example. Here's a question worth pondering, it seems to me: If anyone (R or D) other than Donald Trump were president in March of 2020 - would we have a vaccine today? What number of deaths might we have if he hadn't restricted inbound travel from China and Europe? I think it would also be helpful to try to remove Donald Trump's caustic personality from our evaluation of these events. (Very difficult, I know.) Imagine a generic president who had endured three years of constant attack on every conceivable front. Endured a years-long "investigation" predicated by the political opposition research of his defeated rival from the previous election, culminating in impeachment. A subsequent impeachment on completely bogus "quid pro quo" accusations. Think what you will of the personality, but we've never seen anything like this constant assault on a president. Ever. I can't think of anyone else in public life who could have endured it. In that context, could a generic president be blamed for being supremely suspicious of the narrative being put forth by the media? That even if what the media was reporting about the pandemic were 100% the God's Honest Truth - could a president be excused for a bit of "cry wolf" syndrome? I think so. My brother and nephews will be at the game tomorrow - here's hoping the Eagles can pull off a miracle for their sakes! |
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But I would have made that choice on my own with the information that I had at the time, and I would do it again with the information that I have now. I have spent my share of time in a hospital bed, and it's no fun. So if the vaccine will keep me from getting as sick as I might otherwise get and keep me out of the hospital, I'm in. People who have never spent a night in the hospital or worse - a week or more - don't fear that scenario as much as they should. Each time I was in the hospital for longer than a week, I had my wife or other family members with me just about 100% of the time. I can't imagine how much worse that experience would be if one had to go through it alone. It's very difficult to advocate for yourself when you're really, really sick - or worse, on a ventilator. In my case, my wife is an Advanced Practice Provider and speaks the language. And she doesn't trust nurses/providers to do the right thing 100% of the time. (Ironic, I know - but she has been in the trenches of ERs and ICUs and she knows there is a range of competence amongst medical people - just like in any other profession.)
Mike and I have talked politics a few times and I know he hates Trump, I also know Mike's a really smart guy. My conclusion is, not that Trump can't be an asshole, but that Mike is a victim of geographic political exposure and overreliance on mainstream media indoctrination. You're not alone, Mike, millions share the room with you. The media is the principal culprit, not just because of what they say, but what they don't say. Exhibit #1 (among literally thousands), Hunter Biden.