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Post by hankey on Feb 28, 2019 16:01:30 GMT -5
According to the derelicts who run the Phillies, $330 million over a period of 13 years.
This is Bobby Bonilla on crack. Enjoy your last Dollar Dog Days this year. When he's hitting .240 in June, and fans are starting to tire of paying $20 for a pretzel and a beer, not to mention more for tickets, cable, and parking, it's going to get nasty.
At least we'll be entertained. Unbelievable.
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Post by nephillymike on Feb 28, 2019 19:28:46 GMT -5
So they said they had to tack on 3 yrs at 22M per to get the deal done.
That equates to them being at 10 yrs $264 prior to that.
That seems decently resposible in an irresponsible market.
It also explains how Machado at 10 yrs $300 was higher than the Phils valuation.
I heard on sports talk that some analytics guy said that Harper needs to have a cumulative WAR of 34 over the life of this deal to make it a good deal.
Both guys, Eskin and Joe G seemed to think that was reasonably attainable. They also said that in 13 yrs with MLB inflation, those three out years would be valued at $12 M today. (I.e. 12M today with MLB inflation would be 22M in 13 yrs.). That sounds very generous and very conservative salary growth assumptions.
Part of me like the idea that he didn't want options or trades.
We'll see. Overall, I like it.
We're a much better team today, and will likely be players for future stars as our team improves.
They also said the Phils are the first team ever to sign three position all star players from the prior year in free agency in one year.
That's rare company.
Gotta like it.
As a guy who played and coached the sport for a long while, who loved it for over 40 years, who watched 80% of every pitch back in our heyday 05-11, to someone who didn't watch 50 innings the entire year last year, I am looking forward to baseball again.
That's good for me.
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Post by hankey on Feb 28, 2019 20:05:46 GMT -5
I heard on sports talk that some analytics guy said that Harper needs to have a cumulative WAR of 34 over the life of this deal to make it a good deal. He's played 7 years and has a cumulative WAR of 27.4 - almost exactly a third of that is from his one phenomenal season in 2015 (9.1 WAR). Oh, and he made a total of $47.4 million during that time frame. Is this 'some analytics guy' the guy giving Kapler advice? I hope not, because he sounds like a fraud. I would say his cumulative WAR should be more along the lines of 70-80, allowing for some age decline. He better bring 3 rings as well. I was excited for the year already - I still am. I just think this contract is folly. Yes, he could bounce back and have another MVP year. History says he won't. But we do have two guarantees: -Phillies fans are going to be paying a lot more for just about everything. -He's going to get a shorter honeymoon period than a Kardashian. And he strikes me as someone who isn't going to roll with the fans' punches, to put it mildly. Good luck Bryce. |
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Post by nephillymike on Feb 28, 2019 21:46:31 GMT -5
FWIW, Harper is the Vegas favorite to win MVP.
He should definitely get the 34 WAR, given he is going into his prime
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Post by hankey on Feb 28, 2019 23:17:08 GMT -5
FWIW, Harper is the Vegas favorite to win MVP. He should definitely get the 34 WAR, given he is going into his prime The conventional wisdom is he'll benefit from playing at CBP, and his power numbers will rise. That's true. But he's still a career .268 hitter with 14 homers in 50 games at CBP - that works out to about 23 homers in a full season at home - very good, but not amazing. His slugging pct. is the best ever though at the park. But as I mentioned earlier, that was off of Phillies pitching. Now you have to do that off of Strasburg and Scherzer, not while they're in your dugout. MVPs typically put up a seasonal WAR of 6 at minimum, and higher than 10 in some cases. As great as Harper's MVP season was, he's only reached 4 twice otherwise. He's also had negative defensive WAR. |
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Post by nephillymike on Mar 1, 2019 20:59:25 GMT -5
When the DH comes, his WAR goes up!
Bigger Return on investment!😄
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Post by hankey on Mar 2, 2019 0:09:55 GMT -5
When the DH comes, his WAR goes up! Bigger Return on investment!😄 We can agree on that. I'm a Phillies fan and I want him to kill it and bring us rings. I just don't believe it will happen. If it does I'll happily eat crow! |
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