Cut Ties With Trump Save the Senate

After further review, the Heat Miser is still alive.

It depends on how much of the silent Trumpers vote this time versus the surge in DEMs votes.

538 gives him a 14% chance.

Mikeynumbers puts it at 40%

Well,

Mikeynumbers just finished the latest projections.

Using Real Clear Politics polls which averages polls from many sources. Then by comparing the final polling numbers from 2016 to the actual results for 2016, I compute what I call the "silent Trumpers".

I then look at the RCP averages (normally the last 10 or so polls by state) and add back the "silent Trumpers" from 2016 to the RCP averages and see who wins the battleground states. I only look at the 12 battleground states (TX,FL,PA,OH,MI,GA,NC,AZ,MN,WI,IA,NV). I add the silent Trumpers to the RCP averages to get the winner by state.

Then I choose the RCP averages for the most recent 3 polls by state and do the same computations.

But what if the "silent Trumpers" aren't what they were in 2016? What if they were only 50% of 2016? What about if they were only 75%? It's tough trying determine what that % should be. On one hand, you could say that the 2016 version were more free to speak their mind than this year's version. The names Trump supporters are called and assumed I think has a higher disdain level than before. That would be an argument for close to 100%.

But what if former silent Trumpers are pissed off at his handling of the COVID as he told a full house of non social distancing mostly maskless supporters in NC recently "Come November 4th, you won't ever have to hear about COVID, COVID, COVID anymore" That would be an argument for using the 50% numbers.

Here goes the MikeyNumbers outcome based upon the assumptions:

Using the RCP averages (normally most recent 10 polls per state)

Assuming 100% of 2016 Silent Trumpers = Trump 306 Biden 232
Assuming 75% of 2016 Silent Trumpers = Trump 259 Biden 279
Assuming 50% of 2016 Silent Trumpers = Trump 249 Biden 289

Using the average of most recent 3 RCP polls by state:

Assuming 100% of 2016 Silent Trumpers = Trump 306 Biden 232
Assuming 75% of 2016 Silent Trumpers = Trump 290 Biden 248
Assuming 50% of 2016 Silent Trumpers = Trump 280 Biden 258

Interesting that contrary to my rant, it seems Trump has made solid gains in the polls recently.

Using these analyses, Trump wins in four of the six scenarios.

One thing that I don't know how the polling accounts for is participation. Not sure how they account for a huge turnout versus normal, if they are counted in the polls or not. Interestingly enough, some pundits say you can get a feel for that by tracking which party in the tossup states has more new registrations. Based on this, the Republicans have many more tossup states which they lead in new registrations. Another factor is that the Dems use door to door "get out to vote" campaigns as part of their strategy. The COVID put that on the sidelines this time.

As TO would say "get your popcorn ready" !!

If the Republicans lose, I can't imagine the rioting and looting that will take place across this country. It will be a mess, total chaos. Cop shootings, pedestrian killings, billions of dollars in damages. To save that we better hope for a Republican win.

I actually think severe unrest +++ should be expected regardless of who wins.  With all the evidence of voter fraud and the October surprise provided by a computer repair shop and substantiated by a man named Bobulinski, passionate Trump supporters will revolt if Biden wins.  It doesn't matter who wins for the ANTIFA/BLM mobs to heighten their rampage, Harris and the deep Democrats keep telling us to expect it no matter what.  The big difference is that if Trump wins he'll react with authority because he doesn't have to worry about hurting anyone's feelings.  

In a fair election with a moderately honest media, Trump wins in a landslide.  With the reality we've been facing for a few decades it's hard to guarantee anything, but I believe there are millions of Americans who generally don't vote who are registering to vote for Trump.  The black vote is moving strong to Trump, so is the Latino vote and there's reportedly a large number of Democrats who are terrified at what they're hearing and seeing from their party.  They may hate Trump but they're more concerned with the potential of Brown Shirts patrolling the streets punishing non-compliance with party doctrine.  The polls don't show it because they're rigged and people are afraid of reprisals for speaking out in favor of Trump.  When we look at what the Democrats are doing and how they're reacting, it's not signs of confidence.  The question is if their cheating works, because everyone knows they're cheating.

The only two things the Democrats have in their favor are COVID and Trump's personality, and how they're using COVID is a lie.  Are there enough people who will believe the lie to defeat the man who was responsible for four "peace treaties" in the Mideast, the most robust economy in forever, almost halted illegal immigration, was nominated for the Nobel Peace prize three times and is the only POTUS to stand up to China in almost thirty years?  And that's not mentioning that he's chomping at the bit to put a stop to the lawlessness sweeping the country.  

Yeah, I bet he didn't.  It amazes me that they (your run-of-the-mill left-leaning type) really do think that we (conservatives, Trump supporters) are who the media mischaracterize us to be.  That we're racist bigots with low IQ's and educations to match and that we are a hair-trigger's distance away from the riotous behavior in which THEIR side is actually and currently engaging.  It's head-shakingly baffling.

So back to the numbers.  I truly don't know what's going to happen and I don't think anyone else does either.  I think the entire polling industry may be on the edge of going down the spout.  I don't know how you would accurately engage the "American People" to get a good feel for what they're thinking - especially on something controversial like who they support for president.

Most people, to the degree that their cell phone numbers are public in the first place, don't answer calls from numbers they don't recognize or aren't already in their address books.  

I got the first polling phone call in my life the other night.  I answer all calls on my cell because it does double duty as both business and personal.  Most of the time it's someone trying to sell me auto repair insurance or home security services.  But every now and then it's someone with a legitimate reason to be reaching out to me.  But I bet I'm an exception in that regard.  (And yes, I told the pollster the truth.  Don't know who he was polling for - one of the candidates or an independent "news" organization.)

So we're just going to have to strap in and see what happens.  And I truly hope their isn't a protracted legal battle that keeps us from knowing the outcome for weeks or months.

I don't think there's sufficient evidence for that. And by "that" I mean lines 1, 2, 4, and 5 above.



There are serious anomalies in this election that deserve to be explored, to the degree to which the courts or the legislatures will allow that.



In addition, there are issues that need to be resolved before they happen again and/or in perpetuity. Just one example - the PA legislature (yes, I'm aware that the Republicans have majorities in both houses) changed PA election law in contravention of the PA Constitution. Judges did additional damage, and the Governor and Sec State even more. The question of whether a state can change its election law in a way contrary to its own law (Constitution) needs to be resolved. If Trump had quit prior to now, as you have suggested, then the Supreme Court wouldn't be asking for briefs on that topic to be submitted in a day or two.



Like I said - that's just one example. Issues that plagued this election must be resolved, and in the case of Georgia, the sooner the better.



I'll leave the hypocrisy of the Democrats for grousing about "sore loserism" for another time. Democrat hypocrisy is almost just not that interesting anymore. Dog bites man. Yawn.

I'd say 50% - meaning a solid "I don't know."  And that's the problem.

Wow!

Crickets.

Today of all days

How about “ I can’t believe that Trump was the ring leader?”

His reaction was inexcusable, but sadly predictable.

I’m going to call his niece and ask her who to bet tomorrow.

Talk about seeing the future.

She was spot on.

I may not see another Republican President in my lifetime.