Post by nephillymike on May 18, 2024 21:53:36 GMT -5
Here's the Eagles 2024 schedule and the point spread and the historical win % with that spread:
Week Matchup Fav/Dog Spread Win%
1 vs GB Fav 1.5 52.2%
2 vs ATL Fav 3.5 62.7%
3 @ NO Fav 3.0 59.1%
4 @ TB Fav 1.5 52.2%
5 BYE
6 vs CLE Fav 3.0 59.1%
7 @ NYG Fav 3.5 62.7%
8 @ CIN Dog 3.0 40.9%
9 vs JAX Fav 3.5 62.7%
10 @ DAL Dog 1.5 47.8%
11 vs WAS Fav 6.0 72.4%
12 @ LAR Dog 5.0 37.9%
13 @ BAL Dog 4.0 31.7% (strange but true)
14 vs CAR Fav 7.5 74.8%
15 vs PIT Fav 3.0 59.1%
16 @ WAS Fav 3.0 59.1%
17 vs DAL Fav 2.0 55.4%
18 vs NYG Fav 5.0 62.1%
Sum of All Win %'s = 9.52 wins (this is despite us being favorites in 13 of 17 games)
Over/Under Wins per Vegas = 10.5
That's a fairly big disparity.
Last year when we were 10-1, if you ran predictive record based on our net turnovers per game and net yards differential per game at that point, our predictive record was 6-5 at that point. Combine that with the collapse later in the year and who knows what our "base" talent is.
Stepping out of the detail, I have us at 10-7 with losses being GB, @ TB, @ CIN, @ DAL, @ LAR, @ BAL, @ WAS.
I'm guessing/hoping that 10-7 gets us a ticket to the post season.
Other things of note:
9 games have point spreads within 3 points with only 2 of 6.0 or more.
No holiday games ( I like this)
12 Sunday games of which 7 are a 1:00 start. I'd prefer more 1:00 games
We have one each of a Thursday, Friday, and Monday night, with 2 Sunday nights. Too many IMO.
Final DAL game is near Christmas time. Not ideal, but a Merry Christmas Philadelphia quote has a nice ring to it.
Thoughts/Predictions ?
Week Matchup Fav/Dog Spread Win%
1 vs GB Fav 1.5 52.2%
2 vs ATL Fav 3.5 62.7%
3 @ NO Fav 3.0 59.1%
4 @ TB Fav 1.5 52.2%
5 BYE
6 vs CLE Fav 3.0 59.1%
7 @ NYG Fav 3.5 62.7%
8 @ CIN Dog 3.0 40.9%
9 vs JAX Fav 3.5 62.7%
10 @ DAL Dog 1.5 47.8%
11 vs WAS Fav 6.0 72.4%
12 @ LAR Dog 5.0 37.9%
13 @ BAL Dog 4.0 31.7% (strange but true)
14 vs CAR Fav 7.5 74.8%
15 vs PIT Fav 3.0 59.1%
16 @ WAS Fav 3.0 59.1%
17 vs DAL Fav 2.0 55.4%
18 vs NYG Fav 5.0 62.1%
Sum of All Win %'s = 9.52 wins (this is despite us being favorites in 13 of 17 games)
Over/Under Wins per Vegas = 10.5
That's a fairly big disparity.
Last year when we were 10-1, if you ran predictive record based on our net turnovers per game and net yards differential per game at that point, our predictive record was 6-5 at that point. Combine that with the collapse later in the year and who knows what our "base" talent is.
Stepping out of the detail, I have us at 10-7 with losses being GB, @ TB, @ CIN, @ DAL, @ LAR, @ BAL, @ WAS.
I'm guessing/hoping that 10-7 gets us a ticket to the post season.
Other things of note:
9 games have point spreads within 3 points with only 2 of 6.0 or more.
No holiday games ( I like this)
12 Sunday games of which 7 are a 1:00 start. I'd prefer more 1:00 games
We have one each of a Thursday, Friday, and Monday night, with 2 Sunday nights. Too many IMO.
Final DAL game is near Christmas time. Not ideal, but a Merry Christmas Philadelphia quote has a nice ring to it.
Thoughts/Predictions ?
