Post by nephillymike on Nov 19, 2023 10:02:38 GMT -5
Ever since the DAL win I hear everyone crowing about how we’re undoubtedly the best team in the NFL and how we’re going to win at least 4 of the next 5 games. Even critical ex players like Joyner and Jaws have hopped on. I look at it and say I’d be happy to win 3 of them. Based on the Sagarin projection, we are current.y ranked 2nd in the NFL, behind only KC. Based on the Sagarin ratings which also are used to compute point spreads on neutral field and has a home field advantage of 2.2 points, here are the projected spreads and the historical win %’s given those spreads:
@kc 3.0 point dogs = 41.9% ( the actual spread matches the Sagarin computed)
vs BUF 4.0 point favs = 68.3%
vs SF 3.0 point favs = 59.1%
@dal 1.0 dogs = 49.5%
@sea 4.0 favs = 68.3%
When you add up the probabilities , it computes to 2.86 wins out of 5.
Furthermore, the schedule maker did us no favors:
We get no benefit to our bye as we are playing another team coming off a bye who’s coach has an 85% win % after bye
Both DAL and SF have ten days off before the play us as the both play on Thursday the week before.
We play Sunday night at DAL before we have to travel cross country to play SEA, a team we haven’t beaten in forever.
The above computed point spreads are not adjusted for these factors.
Here’s my ranking of the top 11 teams that have 6-3 records or better:
MyRnk.Team........W-L.....Point Diff....Yds/ Play Diff...Sagarin.....SAG Rnk....SOS....T/O Diff...
1........BAL...........7-3......+113............+1.6............25.84........4.............22nd.....+1
2........KC............7-2......+65..............+0.9............27.83........1..............6th......(4)
3........PHI...........8-1......+57..............+0.2............26.76........2.............19th.....(2)
4........SF.............6-3......+109............+1.4............26.08........3.............11th.....+8
5........DAL..........6-3......+104............+0.9.............25.10.......5..............25th.....+4
6........MIA..........6-3......+60..............+2.0.............24.03.......8..............12th.....(4)
7........DET..........7-2.......+38.............+0.7.............23.37......10.............17th......+1
8........CLE..........6-3.......+44.............+0.1.............23.60.......9..............10th.....(4)
9........JAX..........6-3........+6..............(0.4).............22.54......12.............14th.....+1
10......SEA..........6-3........(1)..............+0.3............20.46.......15.............30th.....+3
11......PIT...........6-3........(26).............(0.8)...........19.85.......16.............20th.....+10
This type of analysis last year revealed how behind the numbers, MIN was a fraud, which played out by them getting crushed by NYG, who in turn got crushed by us and haven’t been any good since.
one thing that concerns me about the Eagles going forward is our pass defense. Not so much on yards per game, since our strong run defense dictates that others need to throw on us, but on a QB passer efficiency basis. Hurts passer rating is a strong 95.3. We give up a passer rating of 97.1, all against the 19th toughest schedule in the league! Thought of another way, Jalen Hurts plus our stellar OL, plus our stellar receivers lost the battle against other teams passing game going up against our stellar DL and our poor back seven. We lose that battle. That’s brutal and that’s what needs to be fixed. Hopefully, guys getting healthy make the difference. If not, we’ll have a quick exit this year.
As far as the next five, I’ll take 3-2. Beggars can’t be choosers, but I’d like to beat DAL, SF and KC in that order. We’ll see, it will be an interesting ride.
Let’s Go!!
@kc 3.0 point dogs = 41.9% ( the actual spread matches the Sagarin computed)
vs BUF 4.0 point favs = 68.3%
vs SF 3.0 point favs = 59.1%
@dal 1.0 dogs = 49.5%
@sea 4.0 favs = 68.3%
When you add up the probabilities , it computes to 2.86 wins out of 5.
Furthermore, the schedule maker did us no favors:
We get no benefit to our bye as we are playing another team coming off a bye who’s coach has an 85% win % after bye
Both DAL and SF have ten days off before the play us as the both play on Thursday the week before.
We play Sunday night at DAL before we have to travel cross country to play SEA, a team we haven’t beaten in forever.
The above computed point spreads are not adjusted for these factors.
Here’s my ranking of the top 11 teams that have 6-3 records or better:
MyRnk.Team........W-L.....Point Diff....Yds/ Play Diff...Sagarin.....SAG Rnk....SOS....T/O Diff...
1........BAL...........7-3......+113............+1.6............25.84........4.............22nd.....+1
2........KC............7-2......+65..............+0.9............27.83........1..............6th......(4)
3........PHI...........8-1......+57..............+0.2............26.76........2.............19th.....(2)
4........SF.............6-3......+109............+1.4............26.08........3.............11th.....+8
5........DAL..........6-3......+104............+0.9.............25.10.......5..............25th.....+4
6........MIA..........6-3......+60..............+2.0.............24.03.......8..............12th.....(4)
7........DET..........7-2.......+38.............+0.7.............23.37......10.............17th......+1
8........CLE..........6-3.......+44.............+0.1.............23.60.......9..............10th.....(4)
9........JAX..........6-3........+6..............(0.4).............22.54......12.............14th.....+1
10......SEA..........6-3........(1)..............+0.3............20.46.......15.............30th.....+3
11......PIT...........6-3........(26).............(0.8)...........19.85.......16.............20th.....+10
This type of analysis last year revealed how behind the numbers, MIN was a fraud, which played out by them getting crushed by NYG, who in turn got crushed by us and haven’t been any good since.
one thing that concerns me about the Eagles going forward is our pass defense. Not so much on yards per game, since our strong run defense dictates that others need to throw on us, but on a QB passer efficiency basis. Hurts passer rating is a strong 95.3. We give up a passer rating of 97.1, all against the 19th toughest schedule in the league! Thought of another way, Jalen Hurts plus our stellar OL, plus our stellar receivers lost the battle against other teams passing game going up against our stellar DL and our poor back seven. We lose that battle. That’s brutal and that’s what needs to be fixed. Hopefully, guys getting healthy make the difference. If not, we’ll have a quick exit this year.
As far as the next five, I’ll take 3-2. Beggars can’t be choosers, but I’d like to beat DAL, SF and KC in that order. We’ll see, it will be an interesting ride.
Let’s Go!!
